Extracts from a Diary

Too Long; Didn’t Read (TL;DR): The Air Quality issue hasn’t been solved in Delhi-NCR/North India for decade+. Politicians would care if it were a major electoral issue or a major ‘interest groups’ issue. Residents don’t have enough exit options (alternate cities to move to).  Optimism : More people aware of the fact that there’s a problem. People willing to pay. Money & people => possibility of and motivation for technological, political, or social solution.  Prediction : Delhi will halve its current PM2.5 particulate matter in 8 years. But, it requires for the issue to become a voter priority. Long; Do Read: Introduction For the past few years, starting in mid-October, a few things happen without fail in significant parts of North India (and especially Delhi): Delhi skyline changes to the yellow-orangish tint, often seen in Hollywood/Netflix movies when they are depicting Mexico countless (and much-needed!) think pieces around: cause of the dangerously high AQI (at tim...

Examining claimed market failures, government intervention, and the regulatory alternatives that were ignored It’s not often that you get one clean-and-cut story that at the same time showcases: Government’s natural tendency to consolidate more power and reduce citizens’ freedoms, their swift movement in doing so, in a growing industry that has a large number of business-to-consumer users, and the overwhelming discourse, even among the otherwise basic economics educated individuals, is actually cheering them on in this move. But, that’s what happened. The government (of India) recently came out with a bill that effectively banned ‘real money gaming’ (RMG). It banned apps that allowed or facilitated gambling or fantasy leagues, where people bet actual money. It’s a 10 page bill and can be read here ( link ) if one is interested. It passed on Friday, 22nd August 2025 after the President Droupadi Murmu signed on it. In about 4 days from the time it re...

“AI is coming for your job!” “Government will need to step in and give a universal basic income (UBI) to everyone!” “There will be mass unemployment and civil unrest!” Or so I keep hearing these days in different groups. I am a bit more sceptical. I am simultaneously hyped about and underwhelmed by AI. Image generated using ChatGPT Some Famously Wrong Predictions We overestimate what can happen in the short run and underestimate what does in the long run. There are predictions from the 1950s, attributed to IBM’s then chairman, estimating the market size of computers to be 5 units. Not 5 million, not 5 thousand. Just 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1. IBM, probably in the 1980s, thought it would be mind-boggling if there were a use case of more than 128KBs memory. Bill Gates thought there was little commercial potential for this thing called the internet in 1990s, and predicted the end of spam emails “in two years,” in 2004. The prediction about the internet was echoed by subsequent Nobel laureate in E...