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Why Facts Don’t Persuade: Priors, Narratives, and Bayesian Thinking

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Most persuasion fails not for lack of facts but because the starting beliefs are different. As a result, the facts don’t move them as much as we think or hope they would. Persuasion is an important skill across domains. And despite all the changes the rise of AI will lead to, it will remain a vital skill to cultivate. Along with storytelling. Persuasion works across fields — sales, fundraising, motivating a team towards a given objective, or gathering people around a cause. Or posting an article about how Bayesian reasoning is a key reason why we fail at persuasion and talk past each other. Persuasion is not a standalone skill and requires supporting structures. Humour helps. Storytelling helps. The ability to discern facts and a certain level of critical thinking helps. But it’s all towards the same objective: persuading another human (or a set of humans) to adopt a certain view. It should be a simple matter of presenting a certain set of facts. That should be sufficient to persuade t...

De-addiction and Policy Making

<2nd Nov 2012, 1144 am, Versova, Mumbai> Long time no see! I think this datestamp thing of mentioning when a particular article was being written is something that I might be skipping soon. There have been multiple posts that I started in between the last published one which for whatever reasons (like losing interest in the topic I was writing about or wanting to write down something more urgent and important) I've not completed. And, this practice of maintaining a datestamp of each of these things tends to psychologically make me want to complete an older incomplete article than to start writing about my latest fascination. But, I am digressing from what I intended to write in this particular post. I've always maintained that the human mind is among the strongest and most fascinating things (self-serving/narcissistic statement made by my human mind, yes I know). So, whenever people seek other people's advice (and I do too, obviously) there is this part of my br...