Extracts from a Diary

Most persuasion fails not for lack of facts but because the starting beliefs are different. As a result, the facts don’t move them as much as we think or hope they would. Persuasion is an important skill across domains. And despite all the changes the rise of AI will lead to, it will remain a vital skill to cultivate. Along with storytelling. Persuasion works across fields — sales, fundraising, motivating a team towards a given objective, or gathering people around a cause. Or posting an article about how Bayesian reasoning is a key reason why we fail at persuasion and talk past each other. Persuasion is not a standalone skill and requires supporting structures. Humour helps. Storytelling helps. The ability to discern facts and a certain level of critical thinking helps. But it’s all towards the same objective: persuading another human (or a set of humans) to adopt a certain view. It should be a simple matter of presenting a certain set of facts. That should be sufficient to persuade t...

Examining claimed market failures, government intervention, and the regulatory alternatives that were ignored It’s not often that you get one clean-and-cut story that at the same time showcases: Government’s natural tendency to consolidate more power and reduce citizens’ freedoms, their swift movement in doing so, in a growing industry that has a large number of business-to-consumer users, and the overwhelming discourse, even among the otherwise basic economics educated individuals, is actually cheering them on in this move. But, that’s what happened. The government (of India) recently came out with a bill that effectively banned ‘real money gaming’ (RMG). It banned apps that allowed or facilitated gambling or fantasy leagues, where people bet actual money. It’s a 10 page bill and can be read here ( link ) if one is interested. It passed on Friday, 22nd August 2025 after the President Droupadi Murmu signed on it. In about 4 days from the time it re...

Nihilism: The Case for No Inherent Meaning to Life Two anchoring sets of facts: We’re on a pale blue dot called Earth that orbits a modest-sized star, barely noticeable in an otherwise average galaxy containing 10 11 other stars. This galaxy is part of a supercluster containing 100,000 other galaxies. There are probably about 10 million other superclusters in the observable universe. The universe began about 13.8 billion years ago. Earth formed 4.5 billion years ago. Modern Humans appeared around 300,000 years ago (~0.0067% of Earth’s current age), and all of written history — and any named human — are from less than 10,000 years ago (~0.00022% of Earth’s current age). These timelines and scales are so huge that they are humanly incomprehensible. People realise this and move in either direction — incredible religious awe as well as those around rejecting it. You could be like the young protagonist of Annie Hall (1977 movie), who on hearing that the universe is expanding ( 45 seconds ...

I had planned to write on another topic, but a recent experience proved far more compelling. Personal Context Yesterday, the wife, her parents, and I had gone for a musical theatrical play – Humare Ram ft Ashutosh Rana and Rahull Bhuchar ( link to BookMyShow listing of it; may expire in future). The wife and I had booked the tickets mostly hoping that the parents would enjoy it. And, generally expecting a great performance from Ashutosh Rana, who was playing Ravan. Myths, Biases, and a Misunderstood Ram Few disclaimers are in order – I’ve been an agnostic + atheist since mid-teens and between Mahabharat and Ramayan, I’ve always been a bigger admirer of Mahabharat. And so it goes between Shri Krishna and Shri Ram. I have not read the reputed translations of these epics but mostly relying on pop-culture and TV adaptations, I’ve found the Ramayan’s narrative fairly straight-forward as against the layered narrative of Mahabharat. The use of grey characters with different (and changing) m...

Unpacking the Hidden Signals, Status Games, and Feedback Loops Driving Human Behaviour Opening Illustrations: Four Scenes of Signalling in Action Scene 1: It’s about 11pm, and you’re walking down a dark street in an area with high crime rate. There’s a shabbily dressed drunk guy walking towards you. You can make out that they’re drunk, from the stagger in their steps. You switch over to the other side. The guy might be perfectly harmless but why take the risk, you think. Scene 2: You’re going for your school or college reunion after 25 odd years. You want the batchmates to see a certain side of you that the ‘school-you’ didn’t have. What dresses to wear, accessories to add, topics to bring up, that will best help highlight that. How do you showcase being a successful businessperson? Will they identify your Patek Philippe watch, or would you have to drop hints to its price? Will that be too obvious and be seen as lacking class? Or should you go for being more subtle? What if subtlety fa...

Roger Ebert, the great movie critic, often had a grouse with many movies relying on a particular kind of trope. The criticism: the plot kept going because the characters act like idiots or fail to say basic things to each other. (‘Idiot Plot’, explained here .) Think of movies like Kuch Kuch Hota Hai, Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham where half the drama can be skipped if the characters just said what they wanted. Robert Trivers has this fascinating book (called Folly of Fools ) about the evolutionary reasons why we lie – to ourselves and to others. Lying to others gives us some benefits – more food because we claim to be starving, more rest because we claim to be sick, or more sex because we claim certain things that make us more attractive to the other person. We lie to ourselves because it makes it easier to lie to others, if we genuinely believe in the lie ourselves. Hence self-deception. Self-deception can be organisation-wide too and, at times, to disastrous effects. That’s also how ‘conv...

– Or the manifesto of rational & selfish motivations for cooperation from lessons in nature, game theory, and businesses One of the best-selling car salesmen in the US was asked about his secret to success. His response: “I am not asking myself how I can sell them a car this time; I ask instead: how can I be sure they will come to me for their next car?" And so, he’d even actively down-sell some features to his customers: “you don’t need the ceramic brake discs on that McLaren if you’re going to be riding in the city”, “the leather seats wouldn’t be ideal for the temperature of this city”, and so on. He’d actively gain the customer’s trust and would be the default person to go to for subsequent transactions. He’d not be the highest-selling guy for the first 3 years, but in the long run, he was the top salesman. (Rory Sutherland narrating it here ) The One-Shot Mindset Contrast that with the scams being run at touristy places – selling a low-qu...